Market Regime
LLM-synthesized risk regime — indices, macro, KOL takes, prediction markets, news.
20m ago
RISK ON
confidence
75%
SPY 创下 749.53 附近新高，VIX 降至 16.70，低于 18 阈值，且收益率曲线 (10Y-2Y) 维持在 +0.43% 的正值区域。非农就业增加 115k，初请失业金减少 3000，宏观基本面稳固。消费者信心指数仅 49.8 为隐患，但 Polymarket 显示伊朗停火概率高（87% 延续至 5 月底），地缘风险缓解。整体风险资产领涨（IWM +0.93%），市场处于 RISK_ON 状态。
SPY
$745.64
+0.39%
QQQ
$717.54
+0.42%
IWM
$285.12
+0.93%
^VIX
$16.81
+0.66%
TLT
$84.68
+0.55%
HYG
$79.91
+0.01%
Key Drivers
- SPY 逼近 750 关口，年内涨幅显著
- VIX 16.70 处于舒适区，波动率低
- 10Y-2Y 利差 +0.43%，曲线未倒挂
- 非农 +115k，失业率 4.3% 稳定
- 伊朗停火概率高达 87%，地缘压力下降
- 消费者信心仅 49.8，显示居民悲观
Tactical View
- 维持权益多头仓位，特别是小盘股 IWM 有补涨空间
- 利用 VIX 低位买入保护性看跌期权应对数据风险
- 关注即将公布的 ISM 及 NFP，若不及预期可减仓
14d Catalysts
- 2026-05-26 ISM 服务业初值
- 2026-05-28 GDP 修正值
- 2026-06-01 ISM 制造业
- 2026-06-05 就业报告 (NFP)
- 2026-06-08 ISM 服务业终值
FRED macro · 2026-05-25
| Series | Latest | Δ | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average | 332.407Index | +2.11 | 2026-04-01 |
| Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food and Energy in U.S. City Average | 335.423Index | +1.26 | 2026-04-01 |
| Producer Price Index by Commodity: Final Demand | 156.496Index | +2.12 | 2026-04-01 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index | 130.344Index | +0.86 | 2026-03-01 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | +0.00 | 2026-04-01 |
| Federal Funds Effective Rate | 3.64% | +0.00 | 2026-04-01 |
| All Employees, Total Nonfarm | 158736Thous. | +115.00 | 2026-04-01 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) | 129.279Index | +0.38 | 2026-03-01 |
| Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | 119.2825Index | +0.61 | 2026-05-15 |
| Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | 4.57% | +0.00 | 2026-05-21 |
| Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis | 4.08% | +0.04 | 2026-05-21 |
| University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment | 49.8Index | -3.50 | 2026-04-01 |
| Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level | 6713643Mil. o | -14859.00 | 2026-05-20 |
| Initial Claims | 209000Number | -3000.00 | 2026-05-16 |
| 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity | 0.43% | -0.06 | 2026-05-22 |
Upcoming releases · next 14d
- 2026-05-26Industrial Production
- 2026-05-26ISM Services
- 2026-05-28GDP
- 2026-06-01ISM Services
- 2026-06-02U Michigan Sentiment (final)
- 2026-06-03Retail Sales
- 2026-06-05Employment Situation (NFP)
- 2026-06-08ISM Services